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Signal for 15/06/2009 for: GBP/USD


GBP/USD had a good week on the upside that brought some nice profit too, with most of the profit level being hit. However, the pound seems undecided where to go at this moment.

Before we g further in this week’s trade discussion, here is what happened on Friday 12/06/09.

Fridays as it was said tends to be tricky to trade due to the trade volume decreasing considerably. The confirmation level at 1.6590 was not broken resulting in no trade for the day. Price did come close to it though, within some pips and headed down like a bullet for a 250pips move.

I did have a fear that this would happen especially with the 20 EMA flattening down when nearing the European session. I however did not expect such a massive fall. This sudden fall lets me believe that we may see a slight fall in the pound at the start of the London session before the US market opens.

Today's Signals:

I will personally not trade the GBP/USD today as firstly it’s Monday (give the pair a bit of space to breath and decide what it wants to do) and secondly because of some major News announcement one which is related to the US Long-term securities.

Here are the daily levels for 14.06.09

R3-1.6855
R2-1.6726
R1-1.6584
Pivot Point-1.6456
S1-1.6314
S2-1.6185
S3-1.6043

Possible scenarios:

Here I feel there may be two different scenarios before the US open

1- I will start looking for a buy as soon as the London market opens only if price breaks 1.6509 level. There are cluster formation at this level and is price does break, I will wait for a retest and make sure that both 20 EMA and 50 SMA are still leaning up. To be on the safe side, my profit level will be at R1. Once I take profit, I will call it a night.

2- I will look for a sell only if the 1.6397 level is broken (cluster formation around this level). Again to be on the safe side, I will wait for a retest of this level before jumping in a trade. Once confirmation is met, I will take a sell with profit target 1.6310.I may take some position out at 1.6345 and let the rest run to 1.6310.

All these must happen within the UK session, if after 2.5 to 3 hours of the UK session you are in a trade and the target is not reached, take half of your profit at that point in time and bring your stop to break-even.

Happy Trading.

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