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Signal for 15/06/2009 for: GBP/JPY


Ok lets have a quick recap of last week’s events…We had a strong pound last week, which resulted in some nice gains. I believe we may still have a push further up at the start of this coming week.

Today's Signals:

The daily and 4-hours charts are both in overbought region. Having said that, I believe price may head up to test the 164.70 level. At this point it is merely a speculation but we will have a much clearer idea at the open of the London market on Monday.

For the trade set-up of Friday the 12/06, the market reached the first profit target that was set as soon as the London market opened. This was very tricky as the market shoot up, hit the 162.50 level and reversed to come all the way down and find support around the 160.55 level.

Then, price traded between 161.80 and 160.55 for the rest of the day and closed just below 161.80.

I personally did not take any trades that day specially when I saw price testing the 161.24 level at around mid-day of the London session. I assumed that market was too slow and not much was to happen through out the day.

Our levels of concern for the start of week 15.06.09 are as follows:

R3-164.795
R2-163.684
R1-162.675
Pivot Point– 161.564
S1-160.555
S2-159.444
S3-158.435

As I said earlier I see price going all the way up to 164.70. Price may head up as soon as the London market opens. Level that we will need to monitor here are the 161.80 and the pivot point 161.56 which may act as good support levels.

I will be looking for only buy signals on Monday as soon as the London market opens. Ideally I will wait for price to trade above both 161.56 and 161.80. There is no News release that may concern the Pound on Monday. Thus, within the first half an hour of the London session if price trades above both levels given, I will start looking for a buy with profit target 163.35.

Note: We may encounter some resistance at around 162.60.

I will have only one profit target on Monday as I feel buyers will be coming in force for that last big push before the important news that are due for both the Pound and the Yen on Tuesday the 16/06.

However, once price hits 163.35, I will exit three quarters of my position and bring my stop to break even while the remaining lot runs to what I believe may reach 164.70

Ps- before taking a trade wait for a retest of those important levels I have outlined. I use a 20 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA and two 5 Smoothed MA with one high and the other low.

Please, if you have your own trading style stick to it and just use those levels as a reference.

***UPDATE GBP/JPY

This is a quick update in regards to the price behavior of the GBP/JPY. Price moved away from the pivot point 161.56 and found some resistance at 161,24. If this trend persists at the open of the London session the market may head further down for the day.

Besides, the 20 EMA is pointing south and may see a cross with the 50 SMA to the downside.

This changes our analysis of the previous day where we were looking for buy set-up only. At this rate, I will start looking for a sell too at the break of 160.55 where we have some cluster formation. Again, I will wait for a retest anywhere between 160.55 and 160.44 level and make sure that 20 EMA and 50 SMA are clearly heading down on the 15 minutes chart and that the 20 EMA and 50 SMA have just crossed down on the 1 hour chart.

Our first target will be 159.85 and second target may be 159.15.I said may because we have some support 159.50, which is not far from one of our daily support level. To be on the safe side you may decide to close all profit at that level.

Again I will start looking for sell signals at the break of the 160.55 (and 160.44 level for extra confirmation).

If these are not met during the London session trading hours we may experience a ranging market between 161.80 and 160.

So:

1-Look for buy after break of 161.80, wait for retest while taking into consideration 20 EMA and 50 SMA rules.

2-Look for sell after break of 160.55, wait for retest while taking in consideration 20 EMA and 50 SMA rules.

Happy trading

Happy Trading.

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